Updated: Mar 29
Based on current trends, the Scimedico Decedent Model has increased the estimated fatality estimate related to #covid19 from a range of 169,347 to 180,171 by August 30, 2020. Additionally, based on current trends the model has been extended through October 31, 2020 with an outside fatality estimate of between 202,934 to 210,957.
In addition, based on the Scimedico Decedent Model Update, national data models, public information, current infections rates nationally, and analysis by Scimedico, the update now includes analysis of disease spread through August 30, 2020 with an estimate for rising positive test results in the Mid Atlantic, Northern Region, and Northeast.
With dramatic increases in infection rates in the Southeast, South, Southwest, and Western regions of the country and trends in hospitalization and ICU usage moving dramatically upward in these regions combined with negative trends in the Rate of Transmission (Rt*)t in 39 of 50 states, the resulting infection rates nationally will result in positive daily test rates exceeding 75,000 by late July.
In addition, the rapid rise in infection rates will spread by to the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northern region, and Northeast by early August 2020.
The rising Rt rate estimates the rate of spread between an infected person and a person(s) who has not been infected. When the Rt rate is above 1.0 the virus will continue to spread. Rt rates now exceeds 1.0 in 42 states.
The impact on border states is apparent with, for example, the Rt rate in Wisconsin at a national high of 1.39. Wisconsin is a harbinger of what boarder states will experience. Given the lagging indicator of the 1.39 Rt rate combined with rising hospitalization and ICS usage Wisonsin represents an example of boarder what boarder states will over the next twenty-one to thirty days.
As shown on the map, the hospitalization and underlying ICU utilization trends are increasing around the country with Florida (67%), Texas (67%), Arizona (77%), and California (67%) are approaching or at the the key threshold of 70% ICU utilization.
Given the the infection rates in the lower states
Estimated Infection Rate Estimate by Region
With dramatic increases in infections rates in the Southeast, South, Southwest, and Western regions of the country and trends in hospitalization and ICU usage moving dramatically upward combined with negative trends in the Rate of Transmission (Rt*)t in 39 of 50 states, the resulting infection rates nationally will result in positive daily test rates exceeding 75,000 by late July. In addition, the rapid rise in infection rates will spread to the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northern region, and Northeast.
The extension of the Scimedico Decedent Model through October 31, 2020 is based on the rising transmission rates, the Rt rate across the country, and the present rate of hospitalization, the ICU utilization rate, and extrapolated data proprietary to Scimedico deployments in support of customers around the country. The update in the Scimedico to #covid-19 deaths of between 169,347 to 180,171 deaths by August 30, 2020 is based on the increased infection rates to be followed by patient deaths. The extension to October 31, 2020 provides an early estimate of total deaths of 202,934 to 210,957.
Summary Analysis for Healthcare Professionals
The dramatic expansion of infection across the Southeast, South, and West has already impacted all border regions. The Northern states are already impacted with rising Rt rates and the Northeast is also trending upward with both New York and New Jersey above 1.0. For healthcare professionals:
Immediate implementation of overfly patient treatment environments
Continued stockpiling of PPE and related decontamination supplies
Preparation of equipment for the continued rise in hospitalization
Focus on staff wellness with special attention to areas of limited staffing (laboratory)
Implementation of regular emergency preparation protocols
About Scimedico and the Scimedico Decedent Model
In Scimedico's roll as the market leader in preventive maintenance for Pathology Morgue environments, Scimedico models the impact of #covid19 based on national models as well as considering input from the Scimedico customer base and analysis extrapolated from Scimedico's service deployments around the country.
Scimedico is a full service laboratory services and solutions firm, providing Preventive Maintenance, Laboratory Safety, Temporary Environments, Laboratory Moves, and Installation solutions in the Healthcare, Research, and Government Sectors. Scimedico, LLC's preventive maintenance services are available in the United States and Canada.
*The Rt rate is the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rtis above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. Learn More.