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Scimedico decedent model update due to #covid19 as of June 26, 2020

Updated: Mar 29, 2023

Based on current trends, the Scimedico Decedent Model has increased the fatality impact related to #covid19 from a range of 155,4341 to 162,347 by August 30, 2020 to an updated estimate of 168,347 to 174,171 by the end of August.

In Scimedico's roll as the market leader in preventive maintenance for Pathology Morgue environments, Scimedico models the impact of #covid19 based on national models as well as considering input from the Scimedico customer base and analysis extrapolated from Scimedico's service deployments around the country.

According to Scimedico customer John Hopkins University & Medicine positive tests exceed 2.5 million with positive tests surging in California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida. The decedent count at present in the US is 124,424.

Key indicators impacting the increase in COVID-19 related deaths since the last model update is due to the:

  • Increase in positive test rates in the southwest and western regions of the United States

  • Lack of compliance with overall mitigation tactics in states that recently reopened

  • Increased national travel via all methods due to reopening nationally and time of year

  • Age of positive tests in patients under the age of 40 and related impact of both disease spread pre symptoms and asymptomatic conditions

  • Slow institutional and government response and related timeframes in addressing disease spread and related infections

National Analysis

With increased case counts in the Western United States, Southwest, and Southern regions of the country trends in hospitalization and ICU usage are trending upward. Despite the trend toward younger patient infections in these regions, the spike in higher test results will likely negatively impact the total number of #covid related deaths through the current Scimedico Decedent Model projection date of August 30, 2020.

As shown on the map below and available, the hospitalization and underlying ICU utilization rates are increasing around the country with Florida (68%), Texas (66%), Arizona (76%), and California (65%) approaching the key threshold of 70% ICU utilization.

Summary Analysis

The renewed first wave on the West Coast, in the Southwest, and in the South does not offer a positive indicator for neighboring states within these regions. Specifically states like Nevada and New Mexico are likely to see increasing infections and related deaths. For the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northern States and Northeast, it is increasingly likely that infections will increase through the summer season. Taken in conjunction with the likely increase in viral load going into the September through December period, the overall stress on the healthcare system will remain constant.

About Scimedico

Scimedico is a full service laboratory services and solutions firm, providing Preventive Maintenance, Laboratory Safety, Temporary Environments, Laboratory Moves, and Installation solutions in the Healthcare, Research, and Government Sectors. Scimedico, LLC's preventive maintenance services are available in the United States and Canada.


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