In a recent study experts looked at eight major influenza pandemics dating back to the 1700s, as well as data about the new coronavirus, to help forecast how COVID-19 may spread over the coming months. Out of the eight past flu pandemics, scientists said seven had a second substantial peak about six months after the first one. Additionally, some had "smaller waves of cases over the course of 2 years" after the initial outbreak.
"The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population," the report says. "Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2" — the virus that causes COVID-19 — "60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic."
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